#ETF与衍生品 Seeing Cathie Wood's latest insights, I am reminded of the pitfalls I have encountered over the years. She said BTC is the main entry point for institutional investment, ETH is the infrastructure layer, and SOL is for consumer applications — this judgment itself is not problematic, but the issue is that many people go all in immediately after hearing this, completely ignoring the risks.

What did the flash crash on 1011 tell us? BTC has the strongest liquidity but was the first to be hammered down. Other coins experienced even larger declines. This is not a positive signal; it’s a warning that when the market panics, no asset is safe. How many people, after seeing Cathie’s holdings, blindly follow and allocate to derivatives and leverage? Institutional funds entering through ETFs may seem stable, but once policies change or economic data underperform, the speed of withdrawal will catch you off guard.

My current principle is simple: institutional positioning is indeed a long-term signal, but it’s not a reason to jump in short-term. While ETFs lower the entry barrier, the allure of derivatives leverage is even greater. Those who truly survive are those who understand the project lifecycle and know when to exit. Cathie’s perspective may be correct, but her profit curve and your risk tolerance are two different things.

Wait until the news is fully digested before observing the true actions of institutions, rather than guessing prematurely.