#ETF与衍生品 Seeing the comparison between Lighter and Hyperliquid, it feels a bit like going back to 2020 when we were watching DEX competition. Back then, everyone was debating—can Uniswap's AMM model really beat centralized exchanges? The answer is now obvious, but the process was much more winding than expected.

This story of Lighter reminds me of a repeatedly validated rule: technological innovation is never the sole factor in determining victory or defeat. Lighter does have some architectural highlights—its trust assumptions for L2 are clearer, the ZK bridgeless cross-chain logic is quite ingenious, and its fee model addresses retail traders' pain points. But these advantages have been seen too many times in history.

What truly makes me cautious are two issues. First, Lighter still faces the hurdle Hyperliquid once couldn't cross—the cold start after TGE. As token incentives wane and VC unlocks increase, what matters most is genuine liquidity. Hyperliquid has survived to today because it endured that phase and found an exit through HIP-3 ecosystem release. Lighter currently cannot see where that exit might be.

Second, I remain cautious about the "Robinhood-Lighter-Citadel" narrative. It sounds perfect, but financial history shows that the bridges connecting traditional finance and on-chain worlds are most vulnerable during policy shifts. As of late 2023, compliance advantages seem to be a plus, but whether they can truly withstand regulatory pressure depends on how the fight unfolds.

Lighter is not a clone of Hyperliquid, that's for sure. But it is also not a "final winner." After entering the multi-party competition stage, derivatives often evolve into a multi-head coexistence—just like spot DEXs, with Uniswap, Curve, and Balancer each holding their ground. My feeling is, the significance of this round of dialogue isn't about who beats whom, but about these two projects jointly dismantling the monopoly of CEXs on derivatives trading. From this macro perspective, they are different units of the same revolution.

Airdrops are very likely to happen within the year, but a more interesting question arises afterward—will real traders stay? The answer to this question will be more defining for Lighter's future than the TGE itself.