Source: Yellow Original Title: The Q4 pattern of Bitcoin persisted for a decade and then 2025 brought an outlier value of -23%

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Bitcoin Q4 2025: Anomalous performance after a decade

Bitcoin (BTC) closed Q4 2025 with its second-worst Q4 performance in history, highlighting a sharp deterioration in market momentum since the October peak.

Data shows that Bitcoin declined 23.07% in Q4 2025, well below its historical average Q4 return of 77.07% and median return of 47.73%.

The only worse Q4 in Bitcoin history occurred in 2018, when at the depths of the previous bear market cycle, the price plummeted 42.16%.

This weak quarter marked a tumultuous end to the year, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin’s long-standing seasonal pattern—Q4 has traditionally been its strongest period.

Q4 2025 Breaks Bitcoin’s Seasonal Pattern

Since 2013, Bitcoin’s fourth quarter has typically delivered extraordinary returns, often coinciding with a rebound after summer and increased risk appetite toward the end of the year.

Data shows that Q4 has generated positive returns in most years, with several triple-digit gains during the previous bull cycle.

This pattern was decisively broken in 2025.

After reaching a new quarterly high early on, Bitcoin sharply reversed, erasing all gains and ending with double-digit losses.

-23.07% return makes Q4 2025 a clear outlier relative to historical norms, with severity second only to the capitulation in 2018.

Ethereum Also Exhibits Weak Q4 Performance

Ethereum (ETH) reflected Bitcoin’s weakness, declining 28.28% in Q4 2025.

According to data, this was Ethereum’s fourth-worst quarter in trading history.

While Ethereum has benefited from good performance at year-end in past cycles, Q4 2025 reflects widespread risk aversion across digital assets, with losses extending beyond Bitcoin to major altcoins.

Year-End Losses Redefine Market Narrative

The scale of Q4 losses has altered investors’ assessment of risks at cycle ends.

Historically, strong Q4 performances have reinforced bullish sentiment entering the new year.

In contrast, the sharp declines observed in Bitcoin and Ethereum in Q4 2025 highlight a market under sustained pressure in the months leading to year-end, rather than one driven by rebound momentum.

Bitcoin’s second-worst Q4 performance in history and Ethereum’s one of the weakest year-end quarters indicate that, relative to over a decade of crypto market history, the conclusion of 2025 is indeed an outlier.