2026-01-02 01:24:44

As the new year begins in 2026, interest rates remain firmly in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and the Federal Reserve seems determined to hit the brakes. After just cutting 25 basis points at the end of 2025, they immediately signaled a desire to "stabilize" — this shift in attitude is happening quite quickly.

The latest December dot plot data shows that Fed officials' median expectation for 2026 interest rates is only 3.4%. In other words, there may only be one cut in 2026 (by 25 basis points). Meanwhile, inflation forecasts remain at 2.4%, and economic growth has been revised upward to 2.3%. The logic behind these figures is clear: the economy is resilient enough, so there's no need to rush to loosen policy.

Wall Street consensus is also becoming more cautious. Goldman Sachs expects the pause to last until the end of the first half of the year, with cuts of once in March and once in June, totaling 50 basis points for the year; institutions like iShares and Morningstar are more aggressive, advocating that "at most, one or two cuts will top out." Unless a new Fed chair takes office in May with a significantly different stance, the chances of surprises are limited.

Interestingly, there is considerable disagreement within the dot plot — some officials even advocate for no cuts in 2026, while others boldly predict as many as 150 basis points of cuts. The level of disagreement is comparable to family disputes. A few optimists, like Moody's Mark Zandi, dare to forecast "three cuts in the first half" (75 basis points), citing potential softening in the labor market, further decline in inflation, and political pressure factors. However, this scenario is a very small part of market consensus; the more likely real scenario is: without clear signs of economic deterioration, the Fed will remain on hold, and the total number of rate cuts for the year will stay below two.

To trigger a "three-rate cut" scenario, a black swan event such as a sharp rise in unemployment or a rapid decline in inflation would be needed — none of which are currently in the baseline expectations.

The key time window is the FOMC meeting on January 27-28. The new dot plot data will be released, which will directly determine the market's next move — whether dovish policymakers take the lead or hawks continue to steer. For investors involved in borrowing, holding crypto assets, or other risk assets, the outcome of this meeting is worth close attention. Buckle up, as market volatility could be intense.

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SatoshiHeir

· 4h ago

It should be pointed out that the Federal Reserve's recent "braking" logic is fundamentally flawed. Is the economy resilient enough? Laughs, on-chain data shows that institutions are already quietly withdrawing. The delusion of "three consecutive rate cuts" by Mark Zandi is destined to be mocked by history. True wise men should have long understood: hawkish leadership is the fundamental setting of this cycle. The outcome of the FOMC meeting on January 27 has already been written into the blockchain. Obviously, the spring for risk assets has not arrived yet. Everyone, fasten your seatbelts.

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HalfIsEmpty

· 7h ago

The Fed's recent moves are really outrageous. They cut rates just to turn around and pretend to be hawkish. What's going on? We need to keep a close eye on January 27th; it still feels like a decline is coming. Three consecutive rate cuts? Dream on, unless the unemployment rate suddenly explodes. The dovish and hawkish factions are tearing each other apart every day, and the dot plot is just a Schrödinger's surprise. If they only cut once in 2026 for the whole year, holders will be crying their eyes out. Buckle up and get ready to be chopped like leeks. The crypto market is under immense pressure right now. Why is the Fed so stingy? I bet after January 27th, it will continue to fluctuate; there are no significant positives. Honestly, the economy is too resilient, and the Fed is too timid to step down. The probability of a black swan event is indeed small, but if this trend continues, the crypto world will have to endure it.

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ImpermanentSage

· 7h ago

The Federal Reserve's tactics are indeed a bit sneaky; at the end of the year, they cut and then quickly say stabilize—it's all psychological warfare. Unless there's a black swan event, there will be at most two rate cuts by 2026, which is not friendly to the crypto market. The FOMC meeting on January 27th is the real watershed; either soaring or plunging. The internal opinions in the dot plot are so divided that they might as well flip a coin to decide. Mark Zandi's three-rate cut dream is a bit too optimistic; reality is often more brutal. Fasten your seatbelt; this pace is a real test of mental resilience. Be prepared.

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MidsommarWallet

· 7h ago

The Federal Reserve is trying to play "surprise hunger marketing," with fewer rate cuts than the cryptocurrencies I hold. A hawkish stance is enough to end it; the crypto market will probably enter a bear market again. The real bomb is the FOMC on January 27th. How did they dare to hold positions in the past two weeks? Mark Zandi's prediction is purely a dream; the market doesn't believe it at all. Whether to cut once or twice doesn't really matter; the key is the Fed's attitude, which is the real poison. The internal division in the dot plot shows they don't even know what they're doing anymore. Economic resilience is just code words; translated, it means "We won't bail you out." The new chair won't take office until May, so these three months are a waste of time. The hawks will definitely continue to be tough. Only if the unemployment rate really jumps will the market be rescued. The problem is, the employment market is still quite stable... Instead of waiting for rate cuts, it's better to go all-in on ETH; betting on rate cuts is less reliable than betting on technological routes.

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GoldDiggerDuck

· 7h ago

The Fed's approach is truly clever. Just after cutting rates, they turn around and say to stabilize, and we participants are directly played. It seems that the most likely scenario is only two rate cuts in 2026, but I have a feeling there will be a black swan event. We need to keep a close eye on the FOMC meeting on January 27th, as it concerns the trend of our holdings. The economy's resilience is actually bad news... The Federal Reserve has no motivation to cut rates in the short term. Mark Zandi's prediction is too optimistic; the market simply doesn't believe him.

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StealthDeployer

· 7h ago

The Federal Reserve's recent moves are truly impressive. After cutting rates, they say to stabilize, and the market is being squeezed tightly. Some say they won't cut at all, while others suggest a 150 basis point cut. The internal divisions are truly outrageous. On January 27th, during the critical FOMC meeting, this wave will either see dovish policies take off or continue hawkish. Let's wait and see the show. Three consecutive rate cuts? Dream on. Only black swan events can save the day, and the probability is extremely low. The economy is resilient enough, and the Federal Reserve is just waiting for the right opportunity to keep holding back. Crypto holdings should be closely watched during this meeting; volatility will definitely be very exciting. On the day the dot plot is released, the market will go into a frenzy.

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