Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon: Ethereum's price is being compressed into a classic triangle pattern apex, with volatility noticeably narrowing. From a technical perspective, this kind of compression usually indicates that a **breakout is imminent**.

What is the key factor to watch? Trading volume. This is the key to cracking the situation. If the price breaks above the upper boundary (expected around $2200) accompanied by a significant increase in volume, it could signal the start of a new wave. Conversely, if not, then it's another story.

But a word of caution. Didn't Bitcoin experience a "rise and fall" last week? Breakouts with insufficient volume are often false signals, easily trapping traders. Even more concerning, although ETH's price has been fluctuating, on-chain active addresses are starting to decline, giving a subtle sense of discord—are the bulls truly gaining strength, or are large funds pushing the price up to unload?

ETH's current situation is like a tightly wound spring. The holders' mindset is probably very anxious: either break the deadlock and surge upward, or drop below the bottom directly—don't just sit there. Whether this breakout can hold depends largely on the attitude of off-chain funds.