At the beginning of 2026, the crypto circle has screened out a round of impulsive novices. Recently, friends have always asked me, why did I get trapped as soon as I entered BTC, should I stop loss? There are also people who want to take advantage of the ETH pullback to chase in. I simply wrote down this set of ideas so that everyone could avoid detours.

Let's talk about BTC first, this is the easiest place to overturn. Many people are superstitious that "BTC is a mainstream currency, and if it falls, it is an opportunity to buy the bottom", but this is not the case at all from the perspective of the annual line. Last year's BTC yearly chart was a black line with a long upper shadow – what is this signal? It is a trend turn. In other words, there is a high probability that 2026 will enter an adjustment cycle, and the possibility of a new high is slim. For holders, the current strategy should be to control risk, rather than buying more and more.

How to do it? If there is a subsequent rebound, especially to the price range of $67,900-69,000, it is necessary to reduce the position by at least half. Why this location? Because this is also the overlapping area of the 50% Fibonacci level of the 2024 wave of the big white line and the last round of bull top, the selling pressure will be very large, and there is a high probability that the rebound will still fall here. Instead of fantasizing about holding on for a long time, it is better to keep the capital in time during the adjustment year, which is the serious way to live.

Then talk about ETH, which is a noteworthy opponent this year. Although ETH is now sinking with the market, there are many hidden opportunities from the perspective of the monthly structure. Compared with BTC's conservative attitude, ETH is more worth observing.