The current US political landscape is full of uncertainties, and the underlying economic logic behind this is worth the attention of crypto market participants.

Latest polls show that support for a certain political figure has fallen to a dangerous 36%, with independent voters supporting even only 25%. Behind this rapid decline is the ongoing inflation pressure impacting people's lives—ranging from hamburger prices to electricity bills, almost all daily expenses are rising, with household costs accounting for as much as 70%. Although the tariff increase policy was initially intended to protect domestic industries, it has instead exacerbated this vicious cycle.

For the crypto market, a more critical factor is the stance of the Federal Reserve. The market's expectation of a rate cut in January 2026 is only 15.5%, far below the optimistic forecasts at the beginning of the year. Under Powell's leadership, the Fed remains firm—focusing on data and not swayed by political pressure. This means that the likelihood of implementing easing policies in the short term is limited, and liquidity conditions may remain tight.

Meanwhile, the backlash against certain immigration policy adjustments in Silicon Valley is also heating up, adding more uncertainty to the overall economic policy outlook. As the 2026 midterm elections approach, if inflation remains high and public satisfaction continues to decline, it could trigger a reshuffling of party power, further influencing subsequent economic and financial policy directions.

For investors holding Bitcoin and other mainstream cryptocurrencies (such as FIL, ADA), the key during this period is to closely monitor the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, non-farm employment data, and CPI figures. The ultimate policy direction often determines the liquidity and valuation expectations of risk assets. The current uncertainty brings both risks and opportunities—historically, every policy shift has been a window for asset allocation.