2026-01-01 18:25:48

The four-year cycle theory might really need to be rewritten. Looking back at this round, the third year after the halving was supposed to be the most intense market window, but it turned out to be quite ordinary, not meeting the expected performance.

But on the other hand, bad news is also good news. Since the old rules are broken, the previously "most vulnerable to decline" six-month correction might have actually avoided a disaster. Market logic is changing, and the traditional four-year cycle pattern is failing.

What does this mean? It means we need to adopt a new framework to understand the trends of Bitcoin and mainstream cryptocurrencies. The previous cycle bets now depend on more complex factors—macro liquidity, institutional deployment, policy changes—all of which are redefining the market rhythm.

BTC1,51%

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AltcoinTherapist

· 12h ago

The four-year cycle is broken, but I actually think that's a good thing. To be honest, I was originally planning to rely on cycles for some certainty, but now I have to keep an eye on macro liquidity and all that stuff, and it's overwhelming. Institutions have changed the game rules; retail investors can't play anymore.

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DecentralizeMe

· 12h ago

The four-year cycle has broken down, this is going to be interesting The old routines no longer work, we need to relearn the rules Wait, does this mean that all the previous correct cycle predictions were just for fun? The macro liquidity approach sounds even more complicated than guessing cycles Institutions are playing chess behind the scenes, and we're just here watching the show, right?

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CryptoPhoenix

· 12h ago

The four-year cycle is broken, I thought it could take off this year, but this calmness is really impressive. But on the other hand, the failure of the pattern might be a signal, at least reducing the risk by half a year won't be so easily beaten down. It's time to readjust the mindset; we can't just rely on cycles to make a living. Macro liquidity, institutional movements, and policies are the new rules of the game. The difficulty is higher, but opportunities are also here. A mindset reset is needed, and the value of patience is being cultivated.

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ChainWallflower

· 12h ago

The old patterns are shattered, where are the new opportunities? That's the real question. The cycle theory is a thing of the past; now we need to focus on macro fundamentals. Honestly, the four-year cycle is just a cover; institutions can smash it whenever they want. Another theory that got proven wrong—will it come back in the next cycle? What has this market taught us? Don't trust the套路 too much.

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