Is the ancient whale with ETH costing $378 moving again? How much longer can the 19 million old tokens hold on?

【Blockchain Rhythms】Yesterday, I came across an article by on-chain analyst Murphy, who uncovered an interesting phenomenon—the ancient whales holding ETH with a cost basis below $400 and holding for 5 to 7 years have recently been cashing out in this cycle.

The data is quite straightforward. This group of seasoned investors has an average cost basis of $378. From 2024 to 2025, as long as the ETH price breaks above $4000, they will start to sell aggressively. In March last year, they took profits of $600 million in a single day, and in June, it was even more intense—$1 billion worth of chips ran away in one day. Entering this year, in September, chips held for over 7 years cashed out more than $500 million in a single day, and in October, the 10-year-old chips again reached a scale of $500 million. Interestingly, after this group takes profits, ETH generally begins to top out.

The latest observation is even more intriguing. Starting from May 2024, institutional treasuries began large-scale buying, leading to a gradual shrinkage in the total supply of ETH held for over 5 years. But don’t think the old whales have really liquidated—they still hold 20.1 million ETH at a cost basis below $400. This stockpile is enough for them to continue influencing the market.