Racing Toward the Stars: Why This Space-Defense Play Beats the Recent Moon Darling

When the space economy captured Wall Street’s attention, Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) became the poster child for lunar ambitions. Its stock surged more than 70% in recent weeks following KeyBanc’s bullish coverage after the company’s historic February 2024 moon landing. Yet while Intuitive Machines commands headlines with its lunar achievements, another contender deserves serious consideration: Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ: FLY).

The Moon Landing Moment—And What Comes Next

Intuitive Machines deserves credit. Its Odysseus Nova-C lunar lander accomplished what no American spacecraft had achieved in over half a century—a successful moon touchdown. The company’s focus on NASA contracts and lunar operations is undeniably impressive. But impressive alone doesn’t always translate to superior investment returns.

Compare this to Firefly, which entered public markets in August with a different trajectory. While both companies chase moon contracts, Firefly has moved decisively into adjacent territories. In Q3 2025, NASA awarded Firefly a $176.7 million Commercial Lunar Payload Services contract to deliver five missions to the lunar south pole by 2029. That’s not future speculation—it’s contracted certainty.

The Defense Play That Changes Everything

Here’s where the investment thesis diverges sharply. In October, Firefly completed an $855 million acquisition of SciTec, a defense contractor specializing in space domain awareness and missile defense systems. Weeks later in November, the company announced a partnership with Kratos Defense & Security Solutions to develop hypersonic capabilities. These moves signal a company building a diversified revenue stream beyond lunar operations.

Intuitive Machines has defense connections too, but Firefly appears more strategically positioned. The company isn’t betting solely on moon quotes making headlines—it’s constructing a dual-revenue business model spanning both space infrastructure and defense technology.

The Valuation Reality Check

Here’s the overlooked narrative: since Firefly’s August IPO debut, the stock has declined more than 42%. This presents a contrarian opportunity. Meanwhile, Intuitive Machines’ 70% surge raises an understandable question about valuation sustainability. Recent rallies often precede pullbacks, particularly when driven by single catalyst events like analyst coverage initiation.

What the Data Suggests

Consider historical patterns. When Stock Advisor identified Netflix on December 17, 2004, a $1,000 investment grew to $509,470. Nvidia on April 15, 2005 turned $1,000 into $1,167,988. Stock Advisor’s average 991% return crushes the S&P 500’s 196% performance. The lesson: emerging narratives often hide the real opportunities—and sometimes the real opportunities trade at discount prices.

The Moon Shot Worth Taking

Firefly Aerospace operates at the intersection of two booming sectors: commercial space and defense modernization. While Intuitive Machines has captured this year’s excitement, Firefly’s current valuation discount combined with contracted revenue streams and strategic defense positioning suggests different risk-reward dynamics.

The space economy isn’t about moon quotes alone—it’s about sustainable business models. On that metric, Firefly deserves a place in forward-thinking portfolios.

Scott Levine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Kratos Defense & Security Solutions.