STRK faces a critical inflection point between supply pressure and ecosystem demand. A 127 million token unlock (roughly 5% of total supply) hits on January 15, 2026, creating meaningful sell-side friction. What's more concerning is the circulating supply picture—only around 50% is currently in circulation, meaning vesting overhang looms large over mid-term price discovery.

But here's the counterbalance: BTCFi adoption is generating real demand. Over 1,790 BTC staked within the ecosystem signals genuine utility and network effects. The narrative isn't just about dilution; it's about whether adoption can outpace unlock volume.

Technically, recent network upgrades are tilting the scales toward faster and cheaper transactions, which should strengthen ecosystem stickiness. Whether $STRK can absorb the January unlock without capitulation depends on whether BTCFi momentum holds—and whether new dApps drive compelling use cases before the unlock date arrives.