2025-12-31 04:22:19

Bitcoin has recently been fluctuating around $89,000, and the market is once again worried about whether it will test the bottom again. If it drops back to $74,000, will it trigger a chain of liquidations? Some analysis institutions have provided an answer: no.

The data is clear. A leading institution holds approximately 670,000 BTC, with a market value close to $58.7 billion, and total debt of only $8.24 billion. Even if assets are calculated at $74,000, there are still $49.76 billion remaining, far exceeding the debt. Moreover, these Bitcoins are not collateralized assets; there is no margin call mechanism, nor is there a forced liquidation logic.

So why is the stock price still being hammered? On the surface, it appears to be due to MSCI rule adjustments and a major bank raising margin requirements, but deeper down, the real hidden risk lies in equity dilution. Continuously issuing new shares to buy coins—this logic is not very friendly to long-term shareholders. The market's concern is not about risk, but about the sustainability of growth.

BTC0,12%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

14 Likes

Reward
14
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

DegenApeSurfer

· 01-03 03:37

With such strong data, it's still being hammered down. To put it simply, it's the pitfall of equity dilution. Old shareholders have to be diluted gradually, which isn't meaningful.

View OriginalReply0

DAOplomacy

· 01-02 15:32

honestly the "no cascade liquidation" thesis reads like copium when you zoom out on the actual macro pressures here... yeah the balance sheet looks fine on paper but like, sub-optimal incentive structures around perpetual equity dilution? that's the real game theoretical issue nobody wants to talk about. path dependency matters more than raw collateral ratios, historically speaking.

Reply0

GasBandit

· 01-02 04:18

The data is fine; the problem lies in equity dilution... that's the real pitfall.

View OriginalReply0

OnchainHolmes

· 2025-12-31 04:48

The data suggests there won't be a liquidation, but the stock price is still falling. That's the real problem—the dilution is the killer.

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeCrier

· 2025-12-31 04:43

Speaking of which, how can the data be so solid and still be smashed? To put it simply, it's about equity dilution. Continuously issuing new shares—this tactic is really disgusting.

View OriginalReply0

Ser_This_Is_A_Casino