The probability of an LIT airdrop in the prediction market has recently risen to 70%, but the underlying logic behind this trend warrants in-depth analysis. From an information-driven perspective, this increase in probability is not due to internal news but is entirely driven by public information, leaving considerable room for speculation. According to the market's usual response pattern, the likelihood of a real airdrop happening before the end of the year is actually quite low. Interestingly, the market's sensitivity to such expectations is quite high. Although the predicted numbers in the market are changing, the LIT price itself has also declined accordingly, indicating that participants are indeed paying close attention to this matter. Behind this price weakness, it reflects the market's weighing of the certainty of the airdrop being fulfilled.