Market consensus reversal rule: When most people are bearish, it may be the right time for a rebound.

2025-12-29 07:36:17

【BlockBeats】There is an interesting phenomenon in the recent market. According to the analysis of the Market Sentiment Index (which combines media opinion, social data, and other sentiment indicators), the current consensus has generally shifted to a bearish outlook.

There is a pattern behind this phenomenon worth noting—when a broad consensus forms, the market often moves in the opposite direction. Historical data is quite convincing: the period from July to October 2024, as well as February to April 2025, clearly reflect this logic. The direction most people bet on ultimately gets contradicted by the market.

However, it’s important to note that the “extremely pessimistic index” phase may last for some time. This is especially true when the market is in a long-term bear market pattern. Currently, the market has only just entered this cycle since early November. Although historical data suggests this indicator will eventually point to a bullish trend, in a bear market environment, maintaining restraint and patience is really key—don’t let short-term emotions influence your judgment.

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MelonField

· 12-29 08:06

The theory of consensus reversal has been heard too many times, and every time it's said, "This time is different," but the result is still face-slapped. Wait, it's already November, and you're still saying "about to rebound"? Let's survive the bear market first before bragging. Basically, it's a psychology game of betting; you can't beat the big players. History repeats itself, but never exactly the same. Don't be blinded by past data. Self-control? I think it's the retail investors' restraint that makes the main players cut more profitably. Anyway, I don't believe it anymore. Let's see what happens.

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TommyTeacher1

· 12-29 08:04

It's that same reverse operation theory again. Every time, the market ends up crashing as usual. The data looks good, but when it comes to real money and losses, no one cares about historical patterns. Wait, will this time really see a rebound? I find it hard to believe. Resisting patience? Haha, easy to say. Who doesn't want to wait for a bullish turn? The key is whether the wallet can hold out until then. I'm just worried that this time it's another "wolf is coming" scenario. When the time comes, it'll be reverse operation after reverse operation, turning into a mess.

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rugged_again

· 12-29 08:03

Here we go again? Every time it's about consensus reversal, and yet I'm still trapped. Wait, is this really happening... They said the same thing last year. Oh my god, how much longer do I have to stay up? But still, I have to hold back and not move. I've heard this logic a hundred times, but my wallet hasn't grown at all. History repeating? My principal totally disagrees.

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rekt_but_vibing

· 12-29 07:59

Here comes the same "counter-operation" theory again? When I said that last time, my account got wiped out directly haha Wait, if historical data is so accurate, why are so many people still getting proven wrong? To put it simply, it's knowing that it will rebound but not knowing when the rebound will happen—that's the most frustrating part.

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PaperHandsCriminal

· 12-29 07:55

Coming back with this again? Most people see a decline and then rebound. Why do I always end up on the side getting slapped in the face? Wait, could this be a trap again... Keep holding on. Anyway, it's already fallen so much. Might as well just pretend it will never rise again. History repeats itself, but my wallet will go bankrupt first. I am the witness.

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