As of 2025-12-29 12:00 (UTC+8), BTC current price is approximately $87,600. The daily chart shows a bearish arrangement, with a four-hour range-bound correction. Year-end trading volume is sluggish, making "spikes" easy. The strategy mainly focuses on range high selling and low buying, with risk control as a priority.

1. Quick Overview of Core Technical Aspects

• Daily: Price below 20/50/100-day moving averages, MACD dead cross, RSI≈42 (neutral leaning bearish), Bollinger Bands narrowing, low volatility.

• 4-Hour: Range correction, MACD shows a bullish crossover at low levels but weak momentum; Bollinger middle band at 87,800, upper band at 88,500 acting as resistance, lower band at 86,800 as support.

• Volume: About 1.7 billion USDT in 24 hours, insufficient volume to support trend breakthroughs.

2. Key Price Levels (USD)

• Resistance: 88,500-89,000 (4h upper band + 20-day MA) → 90,000-91,000 (consolidation zone) → 92,900 (50-day MA).

• Support: 86,800 (4h lower band + pivot point) → 85,000 (psychological level) → 80,000 (strong support, tested multiple times).

3. Multi-Period Trading Strategies (with specific levels)

• Short-term (4h/daily)

◦ Long: Stabilization at 86,800 + 4h bullish close + MACD bullish crossover, enter at 87,000; stop loss at 86,300 (below 4h lower band); take profit 1 at 88,000, take profit 2 at 88,500.

◦ Short: Resistance at 88,500-89,000 + 4h bearish close + MACD dead cross, enter at 88,300; stop loss at 89,500 (above 20-day MA); take profit 1 at 87,500, take profit 2 at 87,000.

◦ Risk Control: Single position ≤5%, staggered take profits, avoid heavy overnight positions.

• Swing (daily/3-5 days)

◦ Watch: Before volume confirms breakout above 89,000, mainly short-term, avoid opening swing positions lightly.

◦ Bullish signal: Volume breakout above 90,000 with daily close stable, go long; stop loss at 89,000; target 92,900 (50-day MA).

◦ Bearish signal: Drop below 86,000 with increased volume, lightly short; stop loss at 87,000; target 85,000, break below 80,000.

◦ Risk Control: Single position ≤10%, each stop loss no more than 1.5 times entry price.

• Trend Following (weekly/mid-long term)

◦ Bullish reversal: Weekly close above 92,900 + weekly volume up 30% + daily MACD bullish crossover, then consider long positions.

◦ Bearish reversal: Weekly drop below 80,000 + weekly MACD dead cross, gradually build short positions targeting 75,000-80,000.

4. Risk Control and Execution Points

1. Position size: Single position ≤10%, total leverage ≤2x, liquidity is poor at year-end, strictly control risk.

2. Stop loss: Short-term 500-1000 USD, swing 1000-2000 USD, avoid holding large positions overnight.

3. Timing: Avoid around 21:00 US Eastern Time (UTC), as traditional market volatility can transmit to crypto markets.

4. Signal priority: Price breakout/stabilization > volume > indicators; indicators are only auxiliary.

5. Market Risk Reminder

• Capital: Crypto ETF outflows continue, spot funds are weak, limiting rebound potential.

• Sentiment: Year-end fund repatriation, market cautious, awaiting new catalysts (such as macro data, ETF fund shifts).