Corn Futures Rally Into Holiday Break, Prepared to Resume Action Friday

2025-12-26 01:04:54

Corn contracts staged a noteworthy surge on the final trading session before Thanksgiving, with December and March positions climbing 7 to 8 cents amid pre-holiday positioning. The market appears positioned for a Friday morning restart at 8:30 am CST, with traders having positioned themselves during Wednesday’s strength.

Trading Dynamics and Position Shifts

First notice day for December futures saw 80 delivery assignments originating from an ADM customer. Wednesday’s session revealed significant open interest adjustments, with December positions shedding 64,402 contracts ahead of first notice day, while March picked up 28,596 contracts—a combined 29,413-contract decline. This shift suggests traders rolling out of December exposure into the spring contract.

The CmdtyView benchmark placed spot corn at $4.04 at day’s close, with December futures finishing at $4.31 3/4 (up 8 1/4 cents). March 2026 corn contracts closed at $4.45 1/4, up 7 cents, while May 2026 positions finished at $4.53, up 6 1/4 cents.

USDA Data Flow and Export Expectations

The USDA’s week-ending October 16 Export Sales report is expected Friday morning as the agency continues catching up on announcements delayed during the holiday period. Market participants are forecasting corn bookings between 1.4 to 2.5 million metric tons for the current marketing year, with 0.5 to 1 MMT expected for next year’s commitments. The USDA’s prior week showed 1.59 MMT booked for 2025/26 and 548,640 MT for 2026/27, suggesting ongoing demand pickup.

Ethanol Complex Shows Resilience

Wednesday’s EIA data indicated ethanol production reached 1.113 million barrels per day during the week ending November 21, representing a 22,000-bpd weekly gain and near-record processing rates. Ethanol inventories contracted by 339,000 barrels to 21.968 million barrels, while export demand softened 23,000 bpd to 122,000 bpd. Refiner ethanol utilization declined 3,000 bpd to 885,000 bpd.

The interplay between Wednesday’s strong corn performance and robust ethanol production suggests underlying demand remains constructive despite seasonal holiday adjustments.

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