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Is there still a chance for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates? The latest data has poured cold water on that idea.

CME's betting data just came out, and the market reaction can be described as "cooling down"—the probability of a rate cut in January is only 15.5%, while the chance of holding rates steady has soared to 84.5%. In other words, Wall Street has voted with real money: a rate cut next month is basically unlikely.

Why is this happening? There are just a few reasons:

Inflation still can't be contained. Although the numbers are improving, the Federal Reserve is obviously still not at ease and doesn't dare to cut rates quickly. So, liquidity remains tight, and borrowing costs can't decrease in the short term.

The era of cheap US dollars still has to wait. The dollar will continue to stay strong, and global hot money will keep flowing into the US. What does this mean for the crypto market? High-leverage positions should be cautious; risks are accumulating.

So, what should we do now?

Everyone was expecting the "rate cut + liquidity injection = explosive growth" script, but it seems it needs to be rewritten. Without a new source of continuous liquidity, what can the market rely on to keep moving upward? Faith alone might not be enough.

This is also a test of patience:

When do you think the Federal Reserve will actually start cutting rates? If this high-interest-rate environment continues, is your plan to reduce positions and cut losses or to buy the dip? Can Bitcoin break free from macro dependence and develop an independent trend?

There's a saying—when market expectations are highly aligned, unexpected reversals are often most likely to occur. The consensus is very strong now, but the variables might be hidden behind seemingly "settled" data. Are you ready?