2025-12-25 15:24:41

Recently, I have looked at a lot of prediction market data and found that discussions about the Federal Reserve's next cycle of rate cuts are quite heated. Most people are betting on a cut of more than 50 basis points, while some are more conservative, expecting a range between 25-50 basis points, and a small portion expect less than 25 basis points. Interestingly, almost no one is betting that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates.

Speaking of the Federal Reserve's repurchase agreements, they are essentially a form of market rescue. But one must recognize that — they can only alleviate the situation, not fundamentally reverse the trend. Market liquidity has improved, but deep-rooted problems still exist. Therefore, such policy tools are more about buying time.

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PessimisticOracle

· 12-28 15:18

Interest rate cuts, everyone is betting on it now, but no one dares to bet against the Federal Reserve Dovish statements are flying everywhere, and a surprise hike would just be hilarious Repurchase agreements? Basically just a band-aid, they can't really cure the underlying problem Liquidity improves, so what? The fundamental logic is broken, and this cycle will definitely be extended Buying time? Rather than buying time, it's more like delaying the explosion Everyone is watching the basis point numbers, no one sees the debt black hole behind them Starting at 50bp is so optimistic; inflation data hasn't even decreased much yet

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DuskSurfer

· 12-28 12:19

The expectation of interest rate cuts is now a gamble, and the real black swan has not yet appeared. A sudden hawkish shift means everyone will lose, repurchase agreements are just band-aids, and can't fundamentally solve the problem. When the Federal Reserve acts, everyone follows suit, but the deep pit is still there, and it will have to be faced sooner or later. This wave of liquidity injection is like a shot of adrenaline; only after waking up will the real crisis emerge. We still need to be cautious. Honestly, the market relies on these policy tools to survive; a price will have to be paid sooner or later.

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InfraVibes

· 12-27 10:59

Everyone is betting on rate cuts, and no one dares to take the opposite position. That's the most dangerous signal.

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ServantOfSatoshi

· 12-25 20:44

Everyone is betting on rate cuts, no one dares to take the opposite action, this is ridiculous Everyone is optimistic about the reversal, but what if the hawkish stance suddenly shifts Repurchase agreements are just life-support, treating the symptoms but not the root cause, sooner or later there will be a liquidation What's the difference between 50bp and 25bp? In the end, they are all smoke screens Deep-rooted problems remain unresolved, liquidity easing is pointless, patching one wall only to break another The Federal Reserve is just putting on a show, while we are betting; whoever bets correctly will reap the benefits Well said, policy tools only delay the outbreak of problems; the real crisis is still ahead How many stable months can this rate-cut cycle last?

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LayerZeroHero

· 12-25 15:53

No one dares to bet that the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates, which in itself indicates a problem.

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MidnightGenesis

· 12-25 15:46

On-chain data shows that no one is truly bearish, which is interesting. What does this indicate? It suggests that everyone is feeling hesitant. The Federal Reserve's repurchase agreement scheme, from a code logic perspective, is just a Band-Aid on a wound, treating the symptoms but not the root cause. However, it can at least delay the market collapse, giving us a chance to escape the top. Keep monitoring the market this Friday; there may be movements during late-night surveillance.

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ForkLibertarian

· 12-25 15:37

Everyone is betting on interest rate cuts, but no one dares to go against the trend? This situation is a bit strange.

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GasFeeCrier

· 12-25 15:27

Over 50 basis points? Just look at history, the Federal Reserve says one thing and does another.

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rugpull_survivor

· 12-25 15:25

Basically, it's like drinking poison to quench thirst. I've seen through the Federal Reserve's tactics long ago.