Seeing news that one of the major institutions increased its ETH holdings by 1 billion USD, the only thought that comes to mind is: retail will again send money collectively.

Over the past three months, I have observed a very painful pattern—whenever this institution appears with a flashy style and issues a statement, the ETH trend should be questioned, even tends to decline. But this time? Many people immediately chase the position at $2,940 upon hearing the word "increase in holdings."
Why am I not so excited? After I looked at on-chain data, I realized: this institution started accumulating ETH since early November when ETH was still at $3,400, and has now bought a total of 580,000 ETH, pouring out 1.72 billion USD, with an average cost around $3,208. Now, at $2,940, they are experiencing an unrealized loss of 141 million USD. Even worse, they also used leverage—borrowing 8.87 billion USDT from a lending protocol, nearly double the leverage.
Many people see this data and go all-in immediately, but one thing needs to be clarified: the institution's increase in holdings is not at all a bottom signal.
What is the difference? The institution can bear unrealized losses, retail cannot. They manage over 10 billion USD, with ETH positions accounting for 17% of the total. Even if ETH drops 50%, their total loss is only about 8.5%. But retail? With all positions and leverage, if ETH drops 20%, the account could go completely zero.
There is one more painful thing: institutions play a waiting game, retail plays a fast-food game.
They build positions gradually over two months, while retail sees one tweet, immediately enters all that night, and the next day when ETH drops to $2,800, panic sets in. Institutions count cycles, retail waits for the next rise—that's the fundamental difference.
I must say something that may not sound pleasant: the institution's increase in holdings is sometimes just a marketing strategy.
The history of the crypto market, which has experienced major crashes and project failures, has taught us that the bottom you think is when they need liquidity.
In short: the good news you see may just be a signal that they need you to enter the market.
Ask yourself three realistic questions: Is this really cold money? Can we stay calm if it drops another 30%? Do you have the patience to wait 3 to 6 months? If the answer is no, do not move.
If you really want to join, do not just follow the institution's conclusion; study their strategy. For example, if you have 100,000 IDR to buy ETH, do not buy everything at once, buy 30% at the current price, if it drops another 10%, buy another 30%, and save the remaining 40% for the last.
Finally, set a limit: buy at $2,940, if it drops to $2,500, sell immediately; wrong prediction is okay, preserving capital is true skill, wait until the real bottom before acting.
Remember this last sentence: the institution's increase in holdings is just their show, not your reference. Your task is not to join this show, but to survive until the next cycle.