#预测市场 Seeing Phantom launch a prediction market, my first reaction isn't excitement but caution. Prediction markets sound sophisticated, but frankly, they are just a new form of gambling, only dressed up as "financial derivatives."

I've seen too many people attracted to these kinds of products. Sports, crypto, cultural predictions—these sound like low barriers to entry and easy participation, but in reality, they are classic setups for liquidity traps. The house always prefers this model—seemingly transparent and fair, but in fact, information asymmetry is off the charts. The information you have is always a step behind the operators, which is why most retail investors end up losing money in prediction markets.

More importantly, prediction markets can easily evolve into a "hot potato" game. Early participants can make money, but that's because later entrants are taking the losses. Once growth slows down, the entire market's liquidity can break down, and those left holding the bag are often the greediest players.

If you really want to participate, my advice is: set a stop-loss, strictly control your capital allocation, and never treat prediction as a trading skill to practice. At most, this is just entertainment—don't expect it to turn you around financially. The secret to surviving long on the chain is to stay away from things that look too profitable.