Recently, market sentiment in the crypto space has been extremely suppressed, with two completely opposite voices filling the market, leaving people unsure of whom to believe.

**The bearish perspective**

Still expecting a bottom in 10 months? Some have given this timeline. BTC to drop to $10,000, ETH to halve to $500? Others are claiming that the crypto world is completely finished and beyond saving. But think about it—are these predictions all correct? Human nature is like this—during a bull market, everyone shouts BTC will hit $1 million, and blockchain will change the world; once a correction begins, the same people immediately change tune, shifting from hawkish to dovish. Frankly, most people lack conviction and are just following the crowd.

**The bullish perspective**

From a time perspective, BTC has been correcting for over half a year. Since the sharp decline in mid-October, nearly two months have passed, and according to historical patterns, it should be bottoming out around now. In terms of price range? From its all-time high, it has fallen 40%, and the current retracement is about 30%. Many small coins have dropped over 90%, which is already quite severe.

What's even more interesting is the cyclical change. The old cycle was dominated by veteran whales and big players, but now the chips are rapidly flowing toward large traditional financial institutions. BlackRock, Vanguard Capital, and Bank of America—these new "whales" have an average cost basis around $90,000. In the long run, they will work together to push BTC toward $300,000. (MicroStrategy, as an early adopter, has an average cost basis of only $74,000.)

So, the current phase might be the accumulation stage. Give it another 1-2 months, and the market could start a rally. If you don’t position yourself now, chasing high later could lead to liquidation.

**My trading approach**

Buy BTC spot gradually during the big dips, and sell in parts during rebounds. For futures, maintain a primarily short position mindset—don’t be greedy.