## EUR/USD 2024-2025: When Will the Euro Take Off Against the Dollar?

If there's a currency pair that dominates the Forex market, it's undoubtedly **EUR/USD**. It's no coincidence: we're talking about the clash between the two largest economic powers in the world, the European Union and the United States. The daily volume of this euro-dollar forecast reaches $2.2 trillion just in the spot market, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Profitable? Absolutely, but you need to know what to expect.

## What Do the Charts Say About EUR/USD?

Current technical patterns paint an interesting scenario. We observe an ascending triangle suggesting upward movements. However, not everything is clear: the moving averages (50, 100, and 200 sessions) are generating contradictory signals. The RSI shows contraction without reaching oversold levels, while the DMI indicates a bearish direction, although a new crossover could change the game.

The key resistance remains at **1.1255**, a level that has proven important in recent months.

## EUR/USD Forecast for 2024: The First Move

Applying Fibonacci extensions to technical analysis, the first realistic target for year-end is **1.12921**. This level would represent a favorable scenario for the euro, supported by developments in economic summits.

## EUR/USD Forecast for 2025: How High Will It Go?

Looking ahead to 2025, the zone of 1.21461 emerges as a potential maximum before a correction. However, any pullback should not significantly breach the 1.15 level. The technical foundations are there; now macroeconomics needs to confirm them.

## The True Driver: Monetary Policies

This is the key to the entire euro-dollar forecast. After years of freezing interest rates, both the Federal Reserve (at 5.50%) and the European Central Bank (at 4.50%) are entering a new cycle: that of reductions.

Who will cut first? Historically, it's always the FED. Estimates point to cuts in December 2024 (range 4.50%-4.75%) and again in 2025 (3.75%-4.00%). The ECB would follow with rates at 4% in 2024 and 3% in 2025.

**Here's the dilemma:** when the FED lowers rates without the ECB doing the same, the dollar should weaken. But in 2025, if both entities synchronize their pace, the dollar could rebound.

## How to Invest in EUR/USD?

For retail investors, there are three main paths:

**Investment Funds:** The least efficient option. They only leverage debt denominated in currencies, not actual fluctuations.

**Futures on EUR/USD:** Forward contracts where you profit if the euro-dollar forecast is correct within the estimated timeframe.

**CFD:** The most agile option. With leverage, you access significant positions without needing massive capital. Ideal for short-term and intraday trading.

Remember: one Forex lot is 100,000 units. Movements are subtle, so leverage is your ally.

## The Historical Context: How Did We Get Here?

Since 2008, we've been in a long-term bearish channel. The financial crisis favored the dollar (FED at 0%) while the ECB maintained high rates. Then came the COVID surprise in 2020: the euro jumped from 1.0780 to 1.2299 within months due to massive U.S. stimulus injections.

But European bailouts (TLTRO) cut that advantage. The final blow came in February 2022 with Ukraine: the geopolitical instability in Europe drastically weakened the euro.

## The Four Pillars Moving EUR/USD

**In favor of the dollar:**
- Federal Reserve balance sheet reduction
- Interest rate hikes
- Repatriation of capital from abroad
- Financial crises (the dollar is a safe haven)
- U.S. GDP growth

**Against the dollar:**
- Local recessions in the US
- Gradual abandonment by economies like China
- Fed balance sheet expansion (inflation)
- Rate cuts
- Loss of confidence in the US economy

**In favor of the euro:**
- ECB rate hikes
- Economic improvement in the Eurozone
- Unemployment reduction
- Growth of aggregate GDP

**Against the euro:**
- Massive liquidity injections
- Rate cuts
- Debt purchase programs
- Unemployment rise
- Geopolitical instability (energy, sanctions)

## The Risk No One Mentions

Although the euro-dollar forecast seems clear on paper, "black swans" lurk. An unforeseen crisis, an unexpected geopolitical conflict, or simply a change in economic policy can turn everything upside down. EUR/USD volatility is low compared to other pairs, but that doesn't mean zero risk.

Additionally, each economy has its own rhythm. While Europe suffers from an energy crisis, the US prospers. Or vice versa.

## Is 2024-2025 the Time for EUR/USD?

The euro-dollar forecast points to profitability if you calibrate your bet well. Low volatility, unparalleled market depth, access to leverage... everything speaks in favor. But the real game is understanding what the FED and ECB will do in the coming months.

If the Federal Reserve lowers rates first, the euro will rise. If both synchronize, the dollar could regain ground. Monitor inflation, keep an eye on monetary policy statements, and remember: history shows that the US market tends to anticipate what Europe will do next.

The opportunity is there. Do you have the discipline to seize it?