Major major coin approaches technical turning point... '$3,500' resistance level is key

Market Sentiment Remains Bullish, Institutions Take Profits vs Retail Investors Leverage Buying

At the beginning of the week, the virtual asset market maintains its rebound momentum, but the supply and demand structure is diverging. While institutional investors are realizing gains from the US-listed spot ETFs, open interest(OI) in the futures market is actually increasing. This indicates that leverage demand from retail investors offsets the outflow of institutional positions, preventing the market’s bullish sentiment from waning.

Institutions’ Profit-Taking vs Retail’s Risk Asset Preference

Looking at the market trends over the past week, a clear dual structure emerges. With $87.77 million in net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and $65.59 million from Ethereum spot ETFs, institutional risk management actions are prominent following short-term surges.

Conversely, Ripple spot ETF has seen net inflows of $230.74 million, continuing four weeks of capital inflow. More notably, the futures market is lively. Over the past 24 hours, open interest for BTC, ETH, and XRP has each increased by over 2%, indicating that active trading demand in the futures market is covering ETF outflows.

Bitcoin Breaks $93,500 to Decide Future Direction

Bitcoin is currently maintaining strength around $87,670. Technically, it is converging toward the climax of a ‘Symmetrical Triangle(Symmetrical Triangle)’ pattern, where resistance and support lines connect the highs of November and December. The current price is targeting near the upper boundary of $93,500, and if the daily close occurs at this level, a technical bullish breakout is expected.

The Relative Strength Index(RSI) is showing a gradual upward trend toward the neutral 50 level from 46, and the MACD is also trending upward toward the zero line, signaling a gradual easing of selling pressure. If Bitcoin surpasses $93,500, the first target is expected to be the 50-day Exponential Moving Average(EMA) at $97,205.

However, failure to break through resistance could lead to a correction down to the lower end of the range at $84,000.

( Ethereum and Ripple Show Different Signals

Ethereum is currently around $2,950, attempting to break through a two-month downtrend line that has been in place since October. The short-term pivot point is last week’s high of $3,240; surpassing this level would fully break the downtrend and open room for a rise to the 200-day EMA at $3,459.

The RSI is at 49, approaching the neutral level, signaling a positive outlook. The downside support is expected to be the previous low of $2,623.

Ripple is centered around the psychological support level of $1.87, focusing on defending the $2 mark. It is seeking a rebound within the falling channel)Falling Channel###, with the first resistance at the channel top of $2.18. Breaking this resistance could lead to the 200-day EMA at $2.47 becoming a key medium-term resistance. The MACD signal is showing signs of turning bullish, and whether the $1.90 low from June can hold will likely determine the short-term trend.