Federal Reserve rate cut expectations are converging? There is still room for 3 more rate cuts in 2026

【CryptoP】Economic growth exceeds expectations, and the latest CME data is quite interesting——the probability of rate cuts in January 2026 is lower than previously imagined. This also indicates that market expectations for economic resilience are adjusting.

The recent statements by Federal Reserve Chair candidate Haskett have attracted considerable attention. His core logic is that the main drivers of economic growth come from three aspects: sustained decline in prices, steady income growth, and the recovery of market sentiment. He bluntly stated that if GDP can stabilize around 4%, new employment could return to a range of 100,000 to 150,000 jobs per month. At the end of the discussion, he also pointed to the Federal Reserve itself—implying that in terms of rate cuts, policy responses have already been significantly lagging.

However, it’s important to see clearly that the economic growth in the third quarter was mainly due to inventory adjustments and the easing of trade disruptions, which are temporary factors. The marginal weakening trend in employment is actually still ongoing and has not been reversed.

The key variable here is: as employment gradually becomes the focus of policy considerations, coupled with the gradual confirmation of the new Fed chair candidate, there remains about a 3-rate cut possibility in 2026. For market participants concerned with liquidity expectations, this is an indicator that needs continuous monitoring.