Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD climbs past $4,100 as markets await delayed US September NFP report

Delayed September jobs data sets stage for gold’s next move

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade firmly above $4,110 in the early Asian hours of Thursday, bolstered by persistent economic uncertainty. The delayed US September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report—pushed back 43 days due to government shutdown disruptions—looms as the key catalyst for both the precious metal and USD forecast models this week.

Why the NFP delay matters for gold traders

The postponement of critical labor market data has muddled the Federal Reserve’s ability to assess economic conditions, creating a window of opportunity for safe-haven assets. When key economic indicators are scarce, investors gravitate toward gold’s perceived stability. With Fed officials increasingly split on rate direction, incoming employment figures could tip the balance.

Fed division deepens uncertainty

The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from October 28-29 reveal significant disagreement among policymakers about the next steps. Though the Fed delivered a 25 basis point cut at that meeting, the decision was far from unanimous—several members opposed further reductions in December. This fracture in the committee is reflected in real-time market pricing: CME FedWatch data now shows only a 30% probability of a December rate cut, a sharp drop from the 60% odds traders were assigning just one week prior.

The rate-cut scenario and gold’s trajectory

A softer-than-expected NFP number would likely reinforce dovish sentiment, increasing the odds of a December cut and providing tailwinds for gold. Rate reductions erode the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making the yellow metal more attractive relative to interest-bearing alternatives. Conversely, a strong jobs print could dampen rate-cut expectations and weigh on gold prices.

What traders should watch

The delayed September NFP report represents the market’s best chance to recalibrate Fed rate expectations and USD forecast dynamics. Whether the labor market shows resilience or signs of softening will determine whether safe-haven demand sustains gold above current levels or if selling pressure materializes.