#数字资产市场动态 Bitcoin is likely to consolidate below $80,000 for a long time.

I carefully examined the on-chain data, and there are exactly 6 million coins stacked above $80,000, which amounts to a market value of 600 billion USD. Given the current global market sentiment, there’s no way to generate an incremental capital of a trillion dollars to absorb these coins. Want to hit new highs again? That would require hundreds of billions of dollars being poured in every month—which is clearly unrealistic.

There’s an interesting detail. Between $70,000 and $80,000, there’s a gap in the order book, but the $75,000 level is different. It’s the lowest point of the mid-year shakeout and the springboard for the secondary rally. Logically, this should be a region with highly concentrated chips. But what do we see? Instead, it appears to be sparsely populated. What does this indicate? It shows that since the secondary main wave, the funds that later took over have been forcibly pushed into several million coins.

Looking at the weekly chart—divergence at the top has persisted for half a year, with even 8 consecutive bearish candles, making this trend unmistakable. Large institutional funds and long-dormant chip holders are collectively dumping. Since they’ve already handed over their chips to the new buyers, how could they immediately turn around to rescue the trapped investors? They won’t.

Therefore, a shakeout is necessary. They need to buy back the chips. Currently, most chips are concentrated around $90,000. Even if it drops to $60,000, that’s only a 40% decline—which isn’t a big deal for veteran traders. True effective shakeout? It must fall below $50,000, at least a 50% drop, followed by a long period of sideways accumulation to bottom out.

My previous prediction logic now seems to have a higher probability of happening. $BTC This correction is worth paying close attention to.