#数字资产市场洞察 BTC｜The A wave is not over yet.

To be honest, I don't think the A wave of Bitcoin has completed at all.

Many people say 80,000 is the bottom, but I don't think so. It should still drop to the 75,000 position for the market to be considered thoroughly cleaned out.

**Why do I say this? Three reasons:**

First, look at the cycle. In the past three bear markets, Wave A has lasted between 2.5 to 4.5 months. This round has only lasted one and a half months, and you want to call the bottom? That's too rushed; the accumulated selling pressure can't be released at all.

Let's look at external factors again. Will MSCI kick MSTR out of the index on January 15? The probability of this happening is quite high. If it really happens, that $2.8 billion in passive sell orders is no small number. Such a large-scale bearish sentiment must be digested through a decline, which just happens to complete wave A.

Finally, let's look at the transaction. Since the rebound on November 21, the trading volume has clearly not kept up. Can we consider it a reversal without volume? It's just a pullback. The sellers are still in control, and the bulls are not yet qualified to indiscriminately announce that the bull market has arrived.

**The core conclusion is simple:**

The A wave is not finished yet. Rushing to buy the dip now is just catching a falling knife. We must wait for the emotions to completely collapse and for the negative news to truly land before the B wave will come.

$BTC