The "Christmas rally" curse at the end of the year: Can the traditional stock market save the crypto market? #2025Gate年度账单 #加密市场小幅回暖

As the calendar flips to the end of the year, those folks on Wall Street are starting to recite the "Santa Claus rally" mantra again. This seasonal uptick usually occurs during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January, and it is drawing extra attention this year—especially for those cryptocurrencies that are still struggling in the waters.
Let's first see what history has to say.
In the stock market, the record of the S&P 500 index is quite impressive. Since 1950, the probability of an increase during the Christmas rally period is close to 79%, with an average increase of about 1.3%; going back to the data from 1929, the increase even reached 1.6%. Take this Christmas Eve as an example, the S&P 500 has already risen by 1.1% during this time window. The pattern is there, this is the "iron rule" of traditional financial markets.
What about Bitcoin? It's a completely different story.
The performance of the crypto market is like a temperamental child—there's no规律可言. Flip through the historical账本 and you will know: in the year 2016, Bitcoin skyrocketed by 46% during this period, shocking everyone; but turning back to 2014, there was a 14%跌幅. This "暴涨暴跌" drama is played out every year, and trying to find stable规律? Basically impossible.
Interestingly, Bitcoin's performance seems to be increasingly following the rhythm of the U.S. stock market lately. In other words, if the S&P 500 really delivers a performance as impressive as in history, the entire market's risk appetite may be lifted, allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have been stuck in a quagmire, to catch a breath thanks to this tailwind.
Goldman's trading division has recently made a statement, saying that the market has entered an "overwhelmingly positive seasonal period." What does this mean? It means that everything from stocks to encryption, from large-cap to small-cap coins, could potentially benefit from this seasonal dividend. If mainstream coins like $BTC, $ETH, $BNB, and $DOGE can catch a ride on the stock market's coattails, the possibility of a short-term rebound is indeed considerable.
But here I must say a truth: historical patterns do not equal future guarantees. The market can turn sharply at any time due to a piece of macro news, a change in liquidity, or an unexpected event. The Christmas rally sounds romantic, but in the face of the crypto market, romance often gives way to reality.
Overall, this seasonal rise at the end of the year is being tested by the market. If the traditional stock market performs well as expected, this positive signal is likely to spill over into the volatile crypto market. But whether it will actually happen depends on the market's temperament.