The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the CPI data for November 2025 at 8:30 AM (Eastern Time) on December 18, 2025. This is the first inflation report since the federal government’s 43-day shutdown earlier this year caused a disruption in October data collection and the cancellation of the October CPI report. Due to the lack of October benchmarks, this report did not publish month-over-month (MoM) changes for November, only providing year-over-year (YoY) data and other sub-indicators.

Core CPI significantly below expectations
The data shows that the overall CPI increased by 2.7% YoY, below market expectations of 3.0%-3.1%, and also lower than the previous figure (September) of 3.0%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by only 2.6% YoY, well below the expected 3.0%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2021, with the previous figure at 3.0%.
Looking at sub-components, energy prices increased by about 4.2% YoY, which is the main factor dragging down the overall CPI, but core inflation has slowed significantly, indicating that price pressures outside of food and housing are stabilizing. Although MoM data was not released, some institutions estimate the cumulative increase from November to October to be about 0.2%, suggesting that short-term inflation is very mild. This report shows that U.S. inflation pressures have unexpectedly cooled, with core inflation hitting a near-year low, reflecting the lagging effects of the Federal Reserve’s previous tightening policies. Overall, this helps ease consumer burdens and further solidifies expectations of a soft landing for the economy, although risks of rising energy and service prices remain, and inflation is still some distance from the Fed’s 2% target.
Cryptocurrency market reacts first
After the CPI data was released, before the stock market opened, the cryptocurrency market responded positively: Bitcoin surged briefly, surpassing $89,000, with a current price of $89,030 at the time of writing; Ethereum also rose in tandem, approaching the $3,000 mark, currently at $2,990.
Federal Reserve’s January rate cut probability remains low
Despite the dovish data, according to the CME FedWatch tool, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January next year did not significantly increase after the CPI release, and it is still widely believed that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the next meeting.

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