As the Federal Reserve’s January interest rate decision approaches, market attention is focused on the upcoming release of the US November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the latest inflation report on Thursday, which is a key reference point for assessing the Fed’s policy path in the current macro environment.
Due to previous government shutdown impacts on data collection, this CPI report will not include October data and will not provide month-over-month inflation figures for November. Therefore, the market is more focused on the year-over-year changes in CPI and core CPI to determine whether inflationary pressures are re-emerging. The market generally expects the November CPI year-over-year growth to be around 3.1%, with core CPI approximately 3.0%.
TD Securities analysts noted that rising energy prices could push overall inflation slightly higher than expected, with the annual CPI possibly rising to 3.2%, marking a relatively rapid increase this year, but core inflation is expected to remain stable. This structural divergence may lead the Fed to maintain a cautious stance in the short term.
Regarding interest rate expectations, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the market assigns less than a 20% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points again in January. Although the latest employment data shows a slight increase in the unemployment rate, analysts believe this does not significantly alter the Fed’s policy outlook. Atlanta Fed President Bostic also stated that employment data is mixed; companies still face rising costs, and inflation risks have not been fully alleviated.
The market generally believes that if the November CPI rises to 3.3% or higher year-over-year, it will reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged and support the US dollar’s strength; conversely, if inflation drops to 2.8% or below, expectations for rate cuts may increase, and the US dollar could come under pressure.
From a technical perspective, the US dollar index remains relatively weak in the short term, but downward momentum has slowed. Analysts point out that support levels around 98.60 and 98.00 are critical, and CPI data results could serve as important catalysts for the short-term movements of the dollar and global risk assets.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Non-farm payrolls may unexpectedly increase by only 70,000! White House: It's not an employment recession, but a productivity revolution
White House Chief Kevin Hassett states that future employment may decline due to slower labor force growth and increased productivity. From November to December, the average non-farm payroll increase was 53,000 per month, far below the pre-pandemic average of 183,000. He emphasizes that the economy is not weak, and tighter immigration combined with rising productivity allows growth even with limited labor force. The January forecast is an increase of 70,000. Powell says that demand and supply are declining simultaneously, making it very difficult to interpret at present.
MarketWhisper02-10 03:59
Kevin Wash's Federal Reserve New Policy! Using AI to tame inflation, refusing to be a big buyer of U.S. bonds
Trump nominates Kevin Wash to be Federal Reserve Chair, gold plunges 8.35%, the largest drop in 40 years, and the US dollar index rises over 1%. Wash advocates a contradictory combination of "rate cuts and balance sheet reduction," believing AI is a deflationary force and refusing to be a major buyer of US Treasuries. Nomura and Barclays have serious disagreements over his hawkish and dovish stances.
MarketWhisper02-06 06:28
Charlie Munger: How do I respond when assets drop by 50%?
Charlie Munger emphasized in an interview that experiencing market fluctuations is normal in long-term investing, and the key is to stay calm. Facing major market shocks with composure is a necessary condition for becoming a successful shareholder. Excellent investors can maintain a philosopher's calmness amidst volatility; technical analysis is not the key to gaining an edge.
PANews02-06 02:40
Wosh is about to succeed as Federal Reserve Chair! The probability of a rate cut in June skyrocketed to 46%, boosting risk assets.
Trump nominates Kevin Wash as Federal Reserve Chair. Wash criticizes long-term tightening policies, and market expectations shift towards easing. CME FedWatch shows a 46% chance of rate cuts at the first meeting. Market confidence rebounds, stocks rise first, followed by cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin reacts strongly to liquidity expectations, and altcoins respond even more quickly.
MarketWhisper02-04 03:28
Trump to Announce Federal Reserve Chair! Bitcoin-Friendly Kevin Wash's win rate soars to 95%
Trump announced the Federal Reserve Chair candidate on Friday, with Bloomberg reporting Kevin Wash as the frontrunner. Polymarket odds surged from 30% to 95%, while BlackRock Red fell to 3.4%. Wash is seen as hawkish and will push for tightening. In July, he stated that Bitcoin can provide market discipline to "help policymakers understand right from wrong." The market expects a hawkish appointment, strengthening the US dollar and causing US bond yields to rise.
MarketWhisper01-30 05:28
Gate Daily (January 30): Trump declares a national emergency and Cuban tariffs; The United States will announce a new chairman of the Federal Reserve next week
Bitcoin (BTC) collapsed violently in the short term, temporarily trading at around $84,140 on January 30. Trump declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs on countries that send oil to Cuba, causing risk assets to fall. Trump said that a new Fed chairman will be nominated next week, and interest rates should be 2 to 3 percentage points lower. El Salvador's central bank has put $5,000 in gold in reserves and continues to increase its holdings in Bitcoin.
MarketWhisper01-30 01:21
