Dalio's "Restraint" and Soros's "Greed": Top Mindset Principles for Output and Investment

A sportsman once said: "In super marathons, the winner is often the one who slows down the least."

The underlying principle is:

1. In physics, "slowing down" means loss of kinetic energy. Just like driving a car, braking hard and then restarting often consumes the most fuel.

2. From a mathematical perspective, it's volatility drag. Large drawdowns severely reduce compound returns. "Slowing down the least" is about pursuing extremely low "volatility."

3. In terms of competition, stability can create psychological pressure on opponents.

Therefore, maintaining system continuity is more powerful than pursuing momentary bursts of strength.

The most famous example in this regard is the "20-Mile Rule": during Antarctic expeditions, Amundsen insisted on walking 20 miles a day. When the weather was good, he walked less; when the weather was bad, he pushed harder, ultimately winning the life-and-death contest.

However, Nobel laureate Shleifer has a contrary view.

He found that many New York taxi drivers stick to a "fixed daily income": on rainy days, even if business is good, they stop early once they earn enough; on bad days, they keep working hard despite poor business.

Shleifer says: "This is backwards! The rational strategy is: on rainy days with more passengers, work more; on bad days with little business, go home early."

In a non-linear world with uneven distribution, when big opportunities arise, you should accelerate; during lean times, not slowing down is a waste.

Is this contradictory? No, fundamentally it's about the difference between environment and goals:

a. Amundsen pursues a "continuous chain" linear endurance race;

b. Shleifer emphasizes "maximizing returns" in a non-linear opportunity field.

Amundsen is suited for endurance-based linear projects (such as fitness, reading, entrepreneurship), focusing on continuity;

Shleifer applies to unevenly distributed fields (such as investing, entrepreneurship), where less activity during bad times and aggressive action during good times are optimal. Warren Buffett also said, in investing, when you have nothing to do, it's best to do nothing! Soros also believes that seizing good opportunities means going all-in.