For those interested in investing during the next cycle, it's important to memorize this equation:

1- Low inflation + Low interest
An ideal environment for sustainable growth, stability, and a healthy long-term rise.

2- Inflation equal to the interest rate
A transitional phase, with oscillating upward movement accompanied by caution and skepticism about the economic situation, with uncertainty about sustainability or entering a recession—an intense period of anticipation.

3- Inflation higher than the interest rate
A strong rally driven by the migration of liquidity from bonds to the markets, with accumulated risks of a later reversal when monetary tightening begins, interest rates are raised, and monetary policy changes. Yes, it's a strong upward environment, but with cumulative risks requiring vigilance from the Federal Reserve and increased caution.

- Which phase are we in now?
The current inflation rate is 3%, and the current interest rate is between 3.5% and 3.75%.
Therefore, we are now at the beginning of phase (2), which usually lasts from 6 months to 18 months. I don't expect it to be an optimistic period, God willing.

macro cycles -
- Now, let's move to a slightly more professional phase
for inflation, interest rates, and macroeconomics cycles, and I will try to simplify it as much as possible.

1 - Low inflation + Low interest
Cycle duration from 2 to 6 years, and it may extend further in exceptional cycles.

- Characteristics,
Real profit growth, low volatility, comfortable and non-impulsive upward movement.

2- Inflation equal to the interest
Duration from 6 to 18 months
- Characteristics,
High volatility, conflicting data, markets test investors' patience, the most psychologically dangerous phase.

3- Inflation higher than the interest.
Duration from 1 to 4 years
Characteristics,
Strong and rapid rise, valuation expansion, increased speculation.

How investors practically use these cycles:

- Begins accumulation and gathering
from the end of (2) to the beginning of (3)

- Best timing for holding assets
throughout phase (1) and during the first half of phase (3)

- Starts taking profits and increasing caution
late in phase (3)
at the first interest rate hike, they start spending their positions #GateNovTransparencyReportReleased $BTC