Recently, BTC has fallen quite sharply, and many people have shouted that the bull market is over. But the more I look at it, the more I feel that this is more like a wash than a real shipment. Why? Looking at historical data, you can see the doorway.

**History always repeats itself? Sense of déjà vu in April-June 2021**

If you pull out the BTC monthly chart and compare it, you will find that the trend from October to December this year is almost the same as the wave from April to June 2021 - a rapid rise, and then a rapid retracement, but it did not fall below the key support.

On the other hand, from November 2021 to January 2022, that is the real top structure: slow decline, shrinking trading volume, weak rebound, typical shipment pattern. The difference between the two is too obvious.

**What is the main force thinking? The essential difference between shipping and washing**

Here we have to talk about the operation logic of the main force. If you really want to ship, the normal idea should be to distribute little by little, pull out while pulling, and let retail investors slowly take over. Have you ever seen a smart bookmaker who would rush to smash the order and ship? Isn't that smashing the price down and making your goods not sell at a good price?

Conversely, what if the purpose is to wash the plate? It is much more reasonable to smash the market quickly. The price plummeted→ retail investors panicked→ cut meat and left the market→ the main force took over at a low level. Especially when it hits the bottom, retail investors often dare not buy, and even panic selling, which is what the main force wants to see most.

2021 is the best textbook. The market continued to rise after the rapid correction in April-June, and the slow knife that began in November was the real end of the bull market.

**Now this point in time is too critical**

What's more interesting is that this time node is combined with two backgrounds:

First, the collective expectation of the four-year cycle. Who in the circle doesn't know about the BTC four-year cycle? Everyone has ambushed in advance, waiting for the last wave of the bull market.

But if you think from the perspective of the main force, if everyone is ready to take over, will you still be stupid to pull the plate and make yourself a receiver? Of course not. So the smartest thing to do at this time is to smash the market and wash away a group of people first, so that they think that the bull market is really over, or even cut their flesh and leave, and then pull it up. After this wave of operations, it can accumulate funds at a low level, and it can allow the FOMO people behind to take over at a high position.

Second, changes in macro liquidity. While the market looks miserable right now, don't forget that the Fed is very likely to officially enter an easing cycle in 2026. Even if it is not a continuous interest rate cut, it is still a fall, and once interest rates are lowered and the balance sheet reduction is completely stopped, the liquidity environment will improve significantly.

In this macro context, it is not at all in line with the environmental characteristics of a long-term bear market. Therefore, now it is a quick smash, on the one hand, to force retail investors to hand over their chips, and on the other hand, it is also to quickly finish the bear market and prepare for the next round of liquidity easing.

**Don't be too optimistic, don't be too pessimistic**

Of course, then again, don't be too optimistic about the interest rate cut cycle. In 2026, there is a high probability that there will be no consecutive and significant interest rate cuts as before, and it is more likely to be an intermittent and slow pace. Therefore, even if it is not a big bear market environment, it does not seem to be in line with the characteristics of a crazy bull market, and it may be a market that fluctuates upwards and repeatedly toss people.

The above is just my own analytical logic and may not be correct. I am indeed logical in thinking about problems, but I often don't think comprehensively enough, and it is easy to ignore some variables. I wrote it out to discuss it with you and see if any key factors were missed. The market is a thing, and it never hurts to listen to different voices.