Tonight, the Fed will basically cut 100% by 25 basis points, which is the third cut in 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to the range of 4.25%-4.5%. The market has long been priced in, so the interest rate cut itself will not fry. The key is to look at two things: 1. New dot plot: The September version says that there will only be one cut (25bp) in 2026, and this time it is likely to be revised down twice or maintain once or twice, but the overall will be less than the market thinks (the market is now betting on three or four times in 2026). This is a hawkish rate cut - it has been lowered, but I tell you not to expect it to fall again too soon. 2. Powell's press conference tone: He will emphasize that inflation has not fully returned to 2%, the labor market is only a soft landing, not a hard wound, the policy is close to neutral, and there is a high probability that the future path will be more data-dependent, the pace will slow down, and may even be suspended in the first half of 2026. For the market: the short-term benefits have been realized (interest rate cuts), but the expectations of interest rate cuts in 2026 have been cut, the US dollar and US Treasury yields are prone to rebound, and risk assets such as US stocks and Bitcoin may rise first and then fall. If Bitcoin declares that it will hit 90,000 or 4,000, it is easy to break through falsely, and the probability of stepping back on 90,000 or even 80,008 is not small. In short, tonight is a classic script of buying expectations and selling facts, you just need to take a position and stare at Powell's mouth. #美联储降息预测