The weekend was not calm in terms of news. There are two areas of change worth paying attention to.

First, let's talk about brokerages. Regulators have sent a signal—"appropriately broaden the capital space and leverage limit for quality brokerages." What does this mean? The average leverage ratio of domestic brokerages is 3.97 times, while overseas investment banks often exceed 10 times, a significant gap. Once restrictions are relaxed, capital-intensive businesses such as margin financing, cross-border operations, and derivatives will have room to expand. The industry's ROE could theoretically rise from the current 7% to 15%. On December 5, major funds injected nearly 6 billion yuan into the brokerage sector. After more than two months of declines, there is a clear technical need for a rebound.

The other direction is commercial aerospace. The Long March 8 rocket sent 14 sets of low-orbit satellites into space, and the Long March series has also launched a dense schedule of launches in December. Overseas, SpaceX's valuation has surged to $800 billion, surpassing OpenAI, with IPO rumors suggesting a listing next year. On the A-share side, LandSpace is also preparing for an IPO. After AI, capital is now eyeing this sector, and the logic is quite clear.

What about next week? As emphasized earlier, this pullback does not signal a shift to a bear market, and the 3800 level won't be easily breached. The major finance sector now enjoys the dual support of insurance and brokerages, providing a double layer of protection for the broader market. After the gap is filled, if the index can hold above 3930, the next target will likely be around 3950.

There are two key time points: the US Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on December 9-10, where the market currently expects an 87% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, and a 27% chance of another cut in January. In mid-December, there is also the domestic year-end economic work conference, where policy tools may be deployed.

Both the policy bottom and fund bottom are now fairly clear. If major funds want to make a move next week, the timing is indeed good. There are only a few days left in this year-end window; if you miss this round, you may have to wait until next year. As for how much resistance the market will encounter in the 3950-4000 range, the trading action will provide the answer.