Gold has been pretty stable this week, holding the 4200 level, but it's clearly struggling to break above the 4250 area. Technically, if it can't overcome this resistance in the short term, there's a high chance it will have to come back and test the 4150 to 4180 support range. However, looking at the monthly and weekly charts, the overall bullish trend is still intact, so there's no need to panic.

Right now, the market's main focus is on the Fed's next move. Ahead of the December FOMC meeting, expectations of a rate cut have been supporting gold prices, but we've also seen some profit-taking, which led to a slight pullback at the end of the week. There are a few fundamentals to watch: geopolitical risks remain uncertain, and central banks worldwide are still buying gold—for example, our own central bank increased holdings by 10.3 tons in December. That said, real yields on US Treasuries are still positive, which limits gold's short-term upside to some extent.

Next week will be critical, depending on what the Fed says. If they really cut rates and the tone is dovish, breaking above 4250 shouldn’t be a problem. But if the language is hawkish or cautious, then we’ll probably see more sideways action at high levels.