The recent trend of XNY is quite interesting—the capital flow has been consistently "bleeding."

From short-term to long-term cycles, data from 5 minutes to 10 days all show net outflows. What does this indicate? There’s basically no buying momentum; selling pressure dominates. It’s not that there’s no trading activity in the market, but rather that big players simply don’t want to take over the positions.

What’s more subtle is the current long-short structure: longs and shorts each account for 50%, seemingly well balanced on the surface. But this balance is very fragile—in the context of ongoing capital outflow, this "false balance" could be broken at any moment. The liquidation data from the past 24 hours also tells a story: short liquidations are slightly higher than long liquidations, which indirectly confirms that the downward pressure is more real.

Trading strategy? Don’t rush to chase the dip.

Wait for a rebound to key resistance levels (such as a certain moving average or a previous local high) before considering going short. If the price directly breaks through the recent low, you can try a small position, but be sure to set a stop-loss—in case there’s a breakout above the resistance level with heavy volume, you’ll need to promptly admit you were wrong.

The core logic is simple: in an environment of continuous capital outflow and a seemingly balanced but actually fragile long-short ratio, the probability of a downside move is higher. First, see if it can break below the current consolidation range; if a breakdown is confirmed, there may be more room to fall.

Trading is about taking high-probability opportunities, not betting on miracles.