When you see this headline, do numbers start popping into your head? $50,000? $100,000? Or are you aiming straight for $200,000?

Last weekend, I met up with an old friend at the coffee shop near my house. We talked about his plan—when BTC pulls back to the $40,000–$50,000 range next year, he’ll use his investment property as collateral and go all in. The target is 2030; by then, if the price hits $150,000, he can sell and make over $100,000 in profit.

At first glance, this strategy sounds pretty solid, right? But if you think about it, could it just be an idealistic illusion?

A lot of people think Bitcoin is high risk because the price swings are scary. But the truth is quite the opposite—the real risk isn’t about “will it go up,” but rather “when will you be forced to sell.”

If, at some specific point in the future, you have to cash out, then whether you’re holding BTC, the Nasdaq, gold, or any other volatile asset, it’s basically a gamble. No one can predict whether the day you’re forced to sell will coincide with a major market crash.

Recently, there’s been a massive net inflow of funds into US Bitcoin ETFs, BTC has reclaimed the $90,000+ level, and BNB is back above $900. The market atmosphere is starting to feel like a bull run is back.

Yes, in the next five years, there will definitely be times when Bitcoin is much more expensive than it is now—it might double, or even triple.

But the core issue isn’t whether it will go up. It’s—will you need to sell when it’s up? Or will you be forced out just as it drops?

If your plan is to sell at $150,000, what if it only reaches $148,000? Should you sell then? Or wait a bit longer to see if it goes higher?