Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Short-term Rebound Sets Direction, Mid-to-Long-Term Risks Still Need Caution

Yesterday’s short-term prediction was spot on! Bitcoin dropped below 88,000 to 87,719 and then quickly rebounded, surging above 91,500 within two hours after midnight. In the group, an early warning was given: “Break above 89,100 to confirm the start of a 1-hour level rebound,” and this signal worked smoothly. Additionally, ZEC, which was recommended to buy around 340, performed impressively and is expected to challenge the 440 level.

Short-term Focus: 1-Hour Level Rebound Strength Will Tell

Currently, Bitcoin’s 1-hour level rebound is still ongoing, and there are two possible paths ahead:

- Break above 94,150 to extend into a 4-hour level rebound, with an upside target of 95,000, after which a new 4-hour level decline will start;
- If stuck in the 92,000–94,100 range and unable to break through, this will be a 4-hour level pullback “second sell” signal.

For the short term, pay attention to the 15-minute rhythm: The first wave of the rebound is nearing its end. If the pullback is shallow, look for 90,800 support, and the probability of breaking 94,000 is high; if the pullback is deep, watch the 90,000 level, where breaking through becomes more difficult. The strength of the rebound can be confirmed in tomorrow’s early session.

Mid-to-Long-Term: Is It Hard to Make Money in a Bull Market? Downtrend Remains Unchanged

Many are puzzled: Bitcoin rose from 15,500 to 126,200 (over 8x increase) but still didn’t make money. In reality, institutional participation has changed the market ecosystem, making it harder for retail investors to profit. Large-scale trends still carry clear risks:

- Weekly Level: The downtrend has already started and is expected to last until May or October 2026, with a tentative target of 62,000 (in actual trading, don’t stubbornly stick to the target—wait for the end of the downtrend structure signal);
- Daily Level: The decline since 126,000 is not over—first target is the 75,000–80,000 range, followed by a rebound of about two months (targeting 101,000–104,000). After that, there will still be a third wave of decline; first look at 70,000, and if broken, then 62,000;
- 4-Hour Level: The rebound could end at any time. A new decline is likely to start from this weekend to next week, targeting 75,000–80,000. Don’t be fooled into thinking “80,000 is the bottom.”

Ethereum: Following Bitcoin, Risks Remain

Ethereum is moving in sync with Bitcoin. For the short-term 15-minute level pullback, support is at 3,060; for the next wave of rebound, watch for 3,200, and whether 3,240 can be broken depends on Bitcoin’s movement. If it fails to break 3,440 on the 4-hour level, it may subsequently test the 2,200–2,600 range. The bottom at 2,600 is not confirmed, and the current rebound is just a short-term correction.

Summary: In the short term, focus on the strength of Bitcoin’s 1-hour level rebound. For the mid-to-long term, remain cautious—don’t be misled by short-term bounces. It’s safer to patiently wait for clear entry signals. #美联储降息预测 $BTC $ETH