Analyst: Bitcoin "Risk Aversion Model" Indicates Pullback Risk, Further Downside Remains Highly Likely

AI Summary
Despite Bitcoin’s recent rebound, CryptoQuant’s risk indicators are approaching the high-risk zone, signaling a potential market pullback. Multiple indicators show market fragility; the current drawdown is significant, but not at panic sell-off levels, and downside risks remain.

BlockBeats News, December 6 — Although Bitcoin has seen a recent rebound, CryptoQuant’s multi-indicator risk aversion oscillation index remains close to the “high-risk” area, which historically often signals a market pullback and lowers the probability of a sustained uptrend. CryptoQuant’s “risk aversion model” combines six indicators—downside volatility, upside volatility, exchange inflow, funding rate, open interest in futures, and market capitalization performance—to generate a data-driven market vulnerability assessment. As the oscillation index approaches 60 or enters the “high-risk” area, the risk of a pullback remains elevated.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr also noted that the profit and loss score has dropped to -3, reflecting an extreme concentration of loss-making UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs). Historically, this level typically coincides with bear markets and prolonged cooling phases. The current -32% drawdown exceeds the typical pullback level in normal cycles (-20% to -25%), but is still below the panic sell-off threshold (-50% to -70%), leaving Bitcoin in a fragile intermediate state.

Adler stated that as long as macroeconomic conditions and on-chain profitability indicators do not improve, even if the price stabilizes around $90,000, the possibility of further downside remains high. #成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边