BTC & ETH Short-Term Analysis: 4H Rebound Continues But Risks Lurk, Watch for Pullback Signals

BTC’s 4H-level rebound structure since 80,600 is quite complex. The previous assessment that the third leg was completed near 93,000 was incorrect; in fact, Monday’s pullback was only the second correction. Many traders are concerned whether this rebound can break 100,000, or even upgrade to a daily-level rebound. The answer is clear: 80,600 is only a 4H-level bottom and lacks daily bottom characteristics. The 100,000 target and daily rebound are premature. The 4H chart currently still faces the risk of a “third sell.” Only by regaining 99,000 can we avoid a new low with high probability, but the current rebound is already losing momentum, so be on alert for the 4H rebound to end at any time.

BTC Short-Term: 1H Rebound Nearing End, 4H Second Test Yet to Come

- 1H Level: Currently in the third leg of a 1H rebound, with resistance focused at 94,000-95,000, but momentum is clearly fading and it is likely to end today or tomorrow. The next 1H drop is crucial: if it falls below 86,500, it will likely start a new 4H-level decline. To clarify, the previous 83,800 was only a second test on the 1H level; the 4H second test has not yet appeared, so further downside is expected. The timing for the end of the 4H rebound depends on the internal structure: if it goes for three legs, it could end by the weekend; if it goes for five, it could extend into next week. The key is to monitor the strength of the next 1H drop.
- 15M Level: The internal structure of the 1H rebound from 83,800 has completed five legs and is currently in the sixth 15-minute pullback. If 92,000 holds, it will likely consolidate before another push above 94,000, followed by a 1H or 4H-level decline. If it falls below 91,000, a new 1H decline will be confirmed, targeting support at 88,000-89,000.

ETH Short-Term: Upgrade Catalyst, Rebound Target 3,250-3,300

ETH overall is following BTC’s movement, but this rebound is particularly strong, mainly driven by the Ethereum mainnet Fusaka upgrade on December 3—which uses sharding technology to boost network speed, pushing the price quickly from around 3,000 to over 3,200.

The current 1H rebound is not yet over; a short-term 15M pullback is expected first, targeting 3,150-3,080. After that pullback, another 15M rebound is likely, aiming for the 3,250-3,300 range. Similar to BTC, ETH is in the third leg of the 1H rebound within the 4H rebound, with key resistance at 3,435. Breaking above this will greatly reduce the probability of a new low.

Trend Overview

- Weekly: Downward, weekly-level decline likely underway;
- Daily: Downward, decline not finished, 71,000 likely to be strong support;
- 4H: Upward, rebound continues, waiting for ending signals;
- 1H: Upward, rebound near its end;
- 15M: Upward; if the next rebound fails to accelerate past 98,000, the 1H uptrend will likely conclude. $BTC $ETH #十二月降息预测