ETH’s 4-hour chart has been quite lively lately. The price is hovering at 3213.92, up 0.17%, with intraday volatility at 1.49%. Looking up, 3270 is a hurdle, and the wall at 3500 is even tougher; on the downside, 2945 could catch a dip, and if it really drops, there’s still support at 2760. The MACD just formed a golden cross, and the volume is picking up, but this position still feels uncertain.

The real action is happening on-chain. An old address that’s been accumulating since 2017 has been very active recently—between October 28 and now, it has transferred a total of 30,603 ETH to a major exchange and Galaxy Digital, worth about $70.55 million at an average price of $3,299. That’s $86 higher than the current price! This entity has transaction records with Fengbushi Capital and FBG Capital—definitely an institutional player. Are they selling at these highs because they think we’ve reached a short-term top? Or are they just rebalancing their portfolio?

Retail traders are pretty conflicted right now. Technically, the golden cross looks great, but the road from 3270 to 3500 won’t be easy, especially since a major holder just exited at higher levels. Will we see a push toward 3500 only to stall out? Or will the price pull back to 2945 to test the support?

Tonight’s price action hinges on the 3270 level. If it breaks, 3500 is in play; if not, we might have to retest 2945 first. As the old saying goes, “Be fearful when others are greedy”—with whales reducing positions at the top, retail traders should think twice before chasing the rally.