US Initial Jobless Claims Hit July Low, Fed December Rate Cut Speculation Heats Up

On November 26, 2025, the US Department of Labor released key data ahead of schedule: for the week ending November 22, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 216,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure. This was not only below the market expectation of 225,000 but also marked a seven-month low since mid-April this year. This stronger-than-expected performance overturns previous expectations of a cooling job market, adding further uncertainty to the policy direction of the Fed's December FOMC meeting.

As a "high-frequency barometer" of the labor market, initial jobless claims directly reflect corporate layoff trends and employment resilience. The data shows that this indicator has remained under 230,000 for several consecutive weeks. Even though companies like Verizon and Amazon have had localized layoffs, the overall job market has not seen large-scale job cuts. Continuing jobless claims edged up slightly to 1.96 million, but the increase was limited, indicating smooth reemployment channels for the unemployed. The solid fundamentals of labor demand and the employer tendency to "be cautious about layoffs and hiring" highlight the strong employment support still present in the US economy.

After the data release, global financial markets quickly adjusted their expectations. In the short term, the US dollar index rose 0.2%, and gold prices fell 0.3%, in line with the traditional logic of "strong employment → delayed rate cuts." However, market sentiment soon became divided. Coupled with conflicting signals from the Fed's Beige Book showing steady economic activity but declining consumer spending, the CME "FedWatch" tool showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December did not fall but instead rose, at one point reaching 85%.

At the core of this tug-of-war is the Fed's balance between "employment resilience" and "economic risk." Robust employment reduces the urgency for "economy-saving" rate cuts, and with core inflation not yet at the 2% target, policymakers have more room to wait and see. However, data such as the consumer confidence index posting its largest drop in seven months and the private sector unexpectedly losing 32,000 jobs in November reveal that the foundation for economic recovery remains fragile.

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