Bitcoin Breaks $90,000: On-Chain Indicators Warn of Rising Risks

Source: TokenPost Original Title: Bitcoin $BTC surpasses 10 million dollars… On-chain indicators warn of 'unstable rise' Original Link: Bitcoin has once again broken through $90,000, but on-chain and derivatives indicators show insufficient upward momentum. Lack of trading volume and weak demand have raised concerns about a short-term peak.

On-chain data reflects unstable rise

Bitcoin ( BTC ) has once again surpassed 90,000 this week ( approximately 130 million yen ), but on-chain indicators show that the upward momentum is not stable. In particular, key indicators such as demand, liquidity, and derivatives market have mostly failed to show significant signs of recovery.

According to on-chain data, there is a dense distribution area of over 400,000 Bitcoins at the price level of approximately $84,000. While this can provide support, the spot demand above this price level is extremely thin, making it difficult to ensure the sustainability of the upward movement.

Liquidity signals are concerning

The liquidity flow of Bitcoin has also become a risk factor. The recent on-chain capital transfer patterns are similar to the weak flows observed in the early stages of the bearish market in early 2022. As trading of loss-making tokens increases, the overall market sentiment is also shrinking.

The derivatives market lacks upward momentum

There is almost no detected momentum supporting the rise in the derivatives market. Changes in futures positions are mostly limited to short covering—meaning investors who previously bet on a decline are closing their positions, while the inflow of new long positions targeting the rise is limited.

Key Observation Points

In the context of weak signals in the on-chain and derivatives markets, Bitcoin needs to see a stable rise in spot demand above the $84,000 range to achieve a meaningful breakout. Transitioning from a short-term rebound to a structural rise requires a recovery in trading volume and a restoration of market sentiment as prerequisites.

Market Interpretation

• Bitcoin breaks through $90,000, but on-chain indicators are approaching “weak”.
• Demand above the support line is decreasing, and continuous buying pressure is facing doubts.

Trading Highlights

• The lack of strong on-chain demand may imply short-term peak risks.
• Need to pay attention to whether buying above $84,000 resumes.

Terminology Explanation

• 成本基础(Cost basis): The average purchase price. An indicator used in on-chain analysis to grasp the concentration of purchases at specific price levels.
• Short covering(: The upward pressure generated when closing an existing bearish position.
• Onchain data ): Data extracted from blockchain transaction records, used to interpret investment psychology and capital flow.