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Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in December? This matter truly changes every day.

Market expectations are like a roller coaster—first soaring to 95% feeling stable, then a piece of data comes out and it plunges directly below 30%. Recently, due to some officials' dovish remarks, the probability has soared back to over 80%. In plain terms, the likelihood of a 25 basis points rate cut is indeed quite high now, but is it a done deal? It's still early.

The key lies in two things:

First is the data. In mid-November, the CPI and non-farm employment data will be released, which will directly determine how the Federal Reserve acts. If the unemployment rate jumps to 4.5%, or if the US stock market suddenly drops by 10%, then the interest rate cut button will likely be pressed. Otherwise? There is a high probability of around 60%, and the remaining 40% is just "wait and see."

Secondly, there is internal conflict within the Federal Reserve. The dovish side (such as Williams) is eager to cut rates, fearing that the labor market may not hold up; while the hawkish side (like Jefferson) is concerned that inflation has not been controlled, and a rate cut could lead to troubles. With these differing opinions, the policy naturally becomes inconsistent.

Interestingly, the attitudes of those big institutions on Wall Street are also changing. JPMorgan previously stated that there would be no interest rate cuts this year, but has now changed its stance, predicting a 25 basis point cut in December; Goldman Sachs has been even more direct, saying that a rate cut is almost certain, and also predicting that easing will continue into 2026—although it acknowledges that the economic situation is complicated and that employment pressures still exist.

What should we investors do?

If there really is a cut, short-term bonds and tech stocks may have opportunities; if not, consumer defensive stocks and the dollar will be relatively stable. If you want to hedge against risks, consider allocating to U.S. Treasury futures and gold.

In summary, there is a high probability of action in December, but don't jump to conclusions too early. Keep a close eye on the data releases in mid-December, the latest statements from Federal Reserve officials, and the direction of market sentiment—these three are the true indicators.