Polymarket's latest forecast shows that the Fed's probability of a rate cut in December has skyrocketed to 85%, with the market once again standing at a crucial Node of rate cut expectations. Looking back at the previous two rounds of market trends, funds typically triggered a stage pump when betting on rate cut expectations in advance. However, whether this pump can continue largely depends on the key data to be released on December 3-4 — this set of data will serve as a "precursor signal" for the market direction thereafter.

It should be noted that if the data confirms the continuous deterioration of the economic environment, forcing the Fed to "passively cut interest rates," combined with the current precarious geopolitical conflict pattern, the market is likely to break away from the illusory support of speculative expectations and face a genuine downward adjustment. Interest rate cuts have never been a万能解药; when loose policies resonate with recession risks and geopolitical turmoil, the so-called "liquidity dividend" may very well evolve into a trigger for risk release.
#成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边