November 25 | BTC trend analysis

Core Insights

Current Price: $87,800 (as of November 25, 10:24 AM Beijing Time)

Short-term Outlook: Cautiously optimistic, there are rebound opportunities in the short term. The daily chart shows severe overselling (RSI 32), but the 4-hour chart is beginning to show positive signals. On-chain data indicates that short-term holders are capitulating, which typically marks the formation of a cyclical bottom. Social media sentiment has shifted from panic to cautious optimism, and institutional fund outflows have slowed, laying the groundwork for a potential rebound.

Key Support:

• $87,000 - 1 hour SMA50, 4 hour EMA12 key levels
• $85,286 - Bollinger Bands lower band, cumulative $1.6 billion long liquidation concentration zone
• $81,187 - Daily Bollinger Band lower limit, strong support level

Key Resistance:

• $88,843 - 4-hour Bollinger Band upper band, short-term key resistance
• $89,000 - 200 million USD short liquidation central area
• $95,133 - Middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands, important resistance level

Technical Pattern Analysis

Multiple Time Frame Signals

BTC is currently at a critical turning point, with significant divergence in signals across multiple time frames. The 1-hour chart shows a neutral stance, with an RSI of 52, and the price fluctuating between the EMA moving averages. The 4-hour chart presents a mild bullish signal, with the MACD histogram turning positive and the price approaching the upper Bollinger Band. However, the daily chart remains weak, with the RSI deeply oversold at 32, and the MACD continuing to weaken.

Key price level breakthrough conditions

The technical analysis shows that a breakthrough of $88,800 will confirm a short-term rebound, targeting $89,500. If it falls below $87,000, it may accelerate the decline towards the strong support area near $85,000.

On-chain Data Pivot

capital flow characteristics

In the past 24 hours, on-chain activity for BTC shows positive signals. A net outflow of 1,889 BTC from exchanges indicates that investors are moving Bitcoin to cold wallets for long-term holding. The exchange reserves have decreased from 2.41 million BTC to 1.84 million BTC in 30 days, a drop of 24%, which creates potential support for the price due to this supply tightening.

Holder Behavior Analysis

Short-term holders are going through a capitulation process, with over 63,000 BTC transferred from long-term holders to new buyers. This pattern has historically appeared at cyclical bottoms. At the same time, large transactions (over $1 million) reached 29,000 this week, possibly marking the most active whale trading week of 2025, indicating that big capital is repositioning.

Derivatives Market Status

Position and Liquidation Risk

The total open interest is $59.7 billion, down 1.12% in the last 24 hours, indicating that leverage is decreasing. The funding rates have turned negative (Binance -0.0034%, Bybit -0.0047%), with shorts paying longs, providing support for price stability or an increase.

The liquidation risk chart shows an asymmetric distribution: around $85,040, there is a concentration of $1.6 billion in long liquidations, while above $90,620, there is only $983 million in short liquidations, suggesting a greater risk of a downward breakout. However, if the key support is maintained, the upward resistance is relatively small.

Impact of the Macroeconomic Environment

Recently, the BTC trend has been significantly influenced by macro factors, with a net outflow of $3.5 billion in ETFs in November, setting a historical record. However, this process of institutional deleveraging may be nearing its end, and market panic has reached its lowest level in nearly two years, often indicating a reversal opportunity.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations (67% probability in December) and the upcoming economic data (retail sales, PPI) will provide important catalysts for short-term trends.

Overall Assessment

Considering the overall technical analysis, on-chain data, and market sentiment, BTC is currently in a key support zone and has conditions for a short-term rebound. The oversold state on the daily chart, combined with the continuous outflow of funds from exchanges, provides a basis for a fluctuating rebound in the $87,000-$89,000 range. Investors should closely monitor the effectiveness of the $87,000 support, and a breakout above $88,800 will confirm the short-term rebound trend.