Will MicroStrategy be forced to sell its Bitcoin? On-chain analysts provide an answer

Crypto analyst Willy Woo recently released an analysis of MSTR’s liquidation threshold, which has generated significant discussion. The core conclusion: In the next bear market, it’s almost impossible for MicroStrategy to be forcibly liquidated out of its BTC holdings.

Key data at a glance:

• MSTR needs to keep its stock price above $183.19 to safely weather the $1.01B debt maturing in September 2027
• This corresponds to a BTC price of about $91,502 (assuming mNAV=1 scenario)
• Currently, BTC is at $101,377, leaving a buffer above the risk line
• MSTR holds about 641,205 BTC, with a market value of roughly $64 billion

Woo’s analysis focuses on the convertible bond structure—which is key. MicroStrategy’s debt is in the form of convertible bonds, which can be repaid in cash, stock, or a combination at maturity; there’s no strict requirement to sell BTC. This is much more flexible than traditional collateral liquidation.

Another analyst, Bitcoin Therapist, added: To trigger liquidation, Bitcoin would need to perform “extremely poorly,” not just experience short-term volatility.

However, Woo also highlighted another risk window: If BTC’s price appreciation during the 2028 bull market falls short of expectations and MSTR’s stock price stagnates, there could be pressure for partial liquidation. This depends on the timing of the convertible bond redemption, stock price trajectory, and BTC growth rate all aligning.

Bottom line: You don’t need to worry about MSTR dumping in the next bear market. The real test will come in 2027-2028.