Can BTC reach 115,000 this week? On-chain data + macro events provide the answer

BTC is currently stuck at 106,000, but the next 7 days could be the most crucial week of 2025. The Fed’s $1.5 trillion liquidity injection, FOMC rate cut, crypto legislation signing… with this combination, the market is betting on whether BTC can break through 110,000.

Catalysts piling up this week:

• Monday: US government resumes operations → easing fiscal uncertainty
• Tuesday: FOMC meeting → expected rate cut signal
• Wednesday: Fed injects $1.5T liquidity → historically, moves like this have always pushed BTC higher
• Friday: Crypto legalization bill signed → signal for institutional entry

Technical indicators are strong: RSI at 64 (still room to go), MACD about to form a golden cross, price has broken out of the 106,300-106,700 consolidation range. Resistance at 110,700, support at 100,600.

On-chain signals are interesting: Long-term holders have increased their positions by 6% since late October, exchange outflows keep rising (indicating selling pressure is easing). Whales (1,000-10,000 BTC) are inactive, but retail investors are aggressively buying the dip.

Looking at history: During the Fed’s easing cycles in 2020 and 2023, BTC surged over 30% in the following weeks. If this liquidity really comes in, plus Friday’s legislative boost, breaking 110,000 and even heading towards 112,000-115,000 is not a dream.

But there are risks: If it drops below 104,000, it could fall to 98,000. ETF inflows are still negative, so we’ll have to wait until after the FOMC for a potential reversal.

In short, all the cards are on the table this week; now it’s up to macro conditions to see if they’re truly favorable for BTC.