To be honest, the biggest mistake newcomers make in this market is obsessively focusing on technical indicators. Candlesticks, moving averages, MACD—filling up the entire screen, staying up all night watching the charts until they're exhausted, and in the end? They still lose money.

I’ve been in this space for 8 years and made more mistakes than I’ve had hot meals. It took me a while to realize one thing: the real driving forces in the market are never those fancy indicators. It all comes down to two things—inflation and interest rates. Once you truly understand these, whether you’re playing US stocks or crypto assets, you can at least avoid most of the pitfalls.

How does it work? Think of inflation as taking the market’s temperature. When the “temperature” gets too high, the Fed has to raise rates to cool things down. Borrowing gets more expensive, so who’s going to recklessly invest? Risk assets inevitably take a hit. On the flip side, when inflation drops and rate cut expectations rise, money starts circulating again. When money gets cheaper, investors are suddenly willing to take chances on high-risk assets they wouldn’t have touched before.

There’s a pattern here: every time a cycle of monetary easing starts, US tech stocks and growth stocks are always the first to take off. Right after that comes the crypto market—high-beta assets like Bitcoin tend to follow suit. Why? Because as liquidity loosens, investors’ risk appetite increases, and everyone wants to take a shot at returns in volatile markets.

Let’s talk about a key moment—October 14th last year, during Powell’s speech. As soon as I finished listening, I sensed something had changed. The tone had obviously softened. For example,